The Dip
Q&A: Brandweek
A short interview about the Dip and brands: Q&A: Seth Godin Says ‘Know When To Bail’.
Pundits are (nearly) always wrong
Here’s why:
Because we measure the wrong thing.
Talk show bookers, business plan competitions, acquiring book editors, movie critics, tech entrepreneurs who run trade shows that try to predict the future, tech bloggers, marketing bloggers… when we’re trying to predict whether a new technology or web site or book or song is going to hit, we’re almost always wrong.
Take a look at some of the picks for past web2 shows, or see who got hyped on various morning TV programs or see which authors were turned down by five or ten or fifteen publishing houses… "surprise hits" they call them.
[Uncharacteristically, I’m leaving out the names of the clueless and the misinformed (other than me). I’m not sure why, I guess I just don’t want to have a fight with people, who, unlike me, are unwilling to admit they’re wrong all the time.]
The astonishing thing isn’t that we’re wrong so often (see below) but that given the amplifying power of our platforms, we’re unable to yell loud enough to make our predictions self-fulfilling prophecies. In English: You’d think that being featured by a big publisher or at a big conference would be enough in and of itself to make something undeserving a hit. Alas, only Oprah can do that.
So, why are we wrong? Why does your boss/in-law/friend/VC/editor/pundit always get it wrong?
Because they measure ‘presentation.’ Not just the PPT presentation, but the way an idea feels. How does it present. Is it catchy? Clever? Familiar? We measure whether or not it agrees with our worldview and our sense of the way the world is.
The problem is that hits change worldviews. Hits change our senses. Hits appeal to people other than the gatekeepers and then the word spreads.
How? Through persistence and hard work and constant revision. By getting through the Dip.
If I have a skill in developing stuff, it’s in ignoring these people. Purple Cow was turned down by my old publisher and a few others. Squidoo was dissed by some of the best in the business (the site is about to hit 8 mm monthly page views). The Dip was a hard sell to my agent and my publisher.
No one ‘pre-predicted’ the astonishing success of Flickr or Google or Twitter or Bill Clinton’s first run for President. Sure, it was easy to connect the dots after the fact, but that doesn’t count.
Of course, there are plenty of failures to go around (I know that I’ve got more than plenty). Just because everyone hates it doesn’t mean it’s good. Execution is everything. Execution and persistence and the ability to respond to the market far outweigh a pundit’s gut instinct. But, the thing to remember is this: if everyone loves it, it is almost certain to have troubles.
In fact, my rule of thumb is this: if the right people like it, I’m not trying hard enough.
The Dip
But are you really serious about it?
I did a gig in New York today about the Dip and it went really well. Afterward, someone asked me a question about his new business.
I asked back, "if you accomplish that, will you be seen by your audience as the best in the world, or will you be seen as doing your best?"
He didn’t have to answer. He got it.
If you’re doing your best, only your AYSO soccer coach cares. If you’re the best in the world, the market cares. The secret, if you have limited resources (don’t we all) is to make ‘world’ small enough that you can actually accomplish that.
Price
Maybe the reason it seems that price is all your customers care about is…
… that you haven’t given them anything else to care about.
And your lucky number
Someone has created a business dynasty around machines that give you your weight (well, sort of, within a few pounds) and your lucky number. Questions: Which Turnpike visitors use these machines? Which doctors recommend them? Is the number really lucky?
The Dip
My favorite line from my favorite reviewer
Here’s what Richard Pachter wrote about the Dip today:
The one possible weakness of this otherwise terrific little volume is that it is aimed solely at people who are creative, intelligent and want to succeed. Those who are mediocre, unmotivated or just coasting through life will probably not get much from Godin. He is not an elitist, but his message is squarely aimed at those who want to succeed or at least achieve excellence.
Who should you hire?
Most fast-growing organizations are looking for people who can get stuff done.
There is a fundamental shift in rules from manual-based work (where you follow instructions and an increase in productivity means doing the steps faster) to project-based work (where the instructions are unknown, and visualizing outcomes and then getting things done is what counts.)
And yet, we’re still trying to hire people who have shown an ability to follow instructions.
I’m almost done with my (sold out) book tour, and the biggest pleasure of the project was working with people who totally understand what it is to get things done.
Derek in Ann Arbor, Rajesh, Edith and Deepika in Silicon Valley, Matt in Tempe and Phil in Salt Lake each led huge teams of people (with no infrastructure.) They invented, described, networked, wheedled and most of all, organized. They didn’t do it because it was their job, and they didn’t have organizational authority. They just did it.
That’s who I would hire.
The netflixing of everything
Fedex plus smaller plus cheaper equals opportunity.
Consider Meeting Tomorrow. These guys will ship a projector, a sound system, a wireless microphone… whatever you need for a meeting… directly to your hotel or venue. You arrive, it’s waiting for you. You drop it off at a Fedex box and move on.
This was inconceivable five years ago. The stuff was too big and too expensive and there was no easy way to interact with the user.
I’m betting that there are hundreds of applications of this idea, especially in the business-to-business area. Stuff that you need, reliably, but not often.
Day old sushi
Sometimes you can’t make this stuff up.
As the photo below attests, a profit-minded entrepreneur is trying very hard to make ends meet. The problem with this strategy is obvious. It sends the anti-sushi message. Hey, we’re not fresh. We don’t even care so much about fresh.
If I ran a quickserv sushi place, I’d write the time the product was created on every single box and would offer a local shelter anything that was more than 55 minutes old. The money they make selling the old sushi can’t possibly make up for the horror the full-price customers feel.
